Newstockreports

“Stock Market” is a term that is used to refer both to the physical location for buying and selling stocks, and to the overall activity of the market within a certain country. When you hear “The stock market was down today,” it refers to the combined activity of many stock exchanges.

The major exchanges in the US are the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the American Stock Exchange (Amex), and NASDAQ.

The correct term for the physical location for trading stocks is the “Stock Exchange.” A country may have many different stock exchanges. Usually a particular company’s stocks are traded on only 1 exchange, although large corporations may be listed in several.

Investing Around The World

There are stock exchanges located throughout the world, and it is possible to buy or sell stocks on any of them. The only restriction is the oparating hours of each exchange. Both the NYSE and NASDAQ, for example, operate from 9:30 am to 4:00 pm Eastern Time, Monday through Friday.

Other exchanges have similar opening hours based on their local time. When you trade on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, your order will be executed sometime between 9:30 pm and 4:00 am New York time.

The locations of the major stock exchanges of the world are:

Japan (Tokyo Stock Exchange)
India (Bombay Stock Exchange)
Europe (London Stock Exchange, Frankfurt Stock Exchange, SWX Swiss Exchange)
the People’s Republic of China (Shanghai Stock Exchange)
United States.

Stock Market Fluctuations

The economic health of a country will strongly influence its stock market. When the economy is doing well the market is bullish. Bull markets occur during times of high economic production, low unemployment and low inflation. Bear markets, on the other hand, follow downturns in the economy. When inflation and unemployment are rising, stock prices are usually falling.

Stock price fluctuations are also driven by supply and demand, which in turn are dependent to a great degree on investor psychology. Seeing a stock price rise rapidly can cause investors to jump on the bandwagon, and this rush to buy drives the price up even faster. A falling price can have a similar effect in the other direction. These are short-term fluctuations. Stock prices tend to normalize after such runs.

The stock exchange is only 1 of many opportunities for people to invest. Other popular markets include the Foreign Exchange Market (FOREX), the Futures Market, and the Options Market.

FOREX: World’s Largest Market

The FOREX is the biggest (in terms of value) investment market in the world. FOREX traders buy 1 currency against another and can profit from small changes in currency value. Most FOREX trades are entered and exited in 1 24-hour span, and traders have to keep a close watch on the market in order to make profitable trades.

The Futures Market

The Futures Market is a market of contracts to buy and sell certain goods at specified prices and times. It exists because buyers and sellers of goods wish to lock in prices for future delivery, but market conditions can make the actual futures contract fluctuate considerably in value.

Most investors in the futures market are not interested in the actual goods — only in the profit that can be realized from trading the contracts.

The Options Market

The Options Market is similar to the Futures Market in that an option is a contract that gives you the right (but not the obligation) to trade a stock at a certain price before a specified date. These options can be traded on their own or purchased as a form of insurance against price fluctuations within a certain time frame.

Stocks: Low Risk, Long-Term

All 3 of these markets are considered quite risky without considerable knowledge and experience. They also require close monitoring of market movements. Stocks, on the other hand, are less risky because movements of the market are usually more gradual. Although short-term investment strategies are possible, most people view stocks as long-term investments.

As investors, and we all are investors these days, it is important that we understand the idiosyncrasies of the Stock Market pricing data we use to help us in our decision making efforts. On Wall Street, investing can be a minefield for those who don’t take the time to appreciate why securities prices are at the levels that appear on quarterly account statements. At least four times per year, security prices are more a function of institutional marketing practices than they are a reflection of the economic forces that we would like to think are their primary determining factors. Not even close… Around the end of every calendar quarter, we hear the financial media matter-of-factly report that Institutional Window Dressing Activities” are in full swing. But that is as far, and as deep, as it ever goes. What are they talking about, and just what does it mean to you as an investor?

There are at least three forms of Window Dressing, none of which should make you particularly happy and all of which should make you question the integrity of organizations that either authorize, implement, or condone their use. The better-known variety involves the culling from portfolios of stocks with significant losses and replacing them with shares of companies whose shares have been the most popular during recent months. Not only does this practice make the managers look smarter on reports sent to major clients, it also makes Mutual Fund performance numbers appear significantly more attractive to prospective “fund switchers”. On the sell side of the ledger, prices of the weakest performing stocks are pushed down even further. Obviously, all fund managements will take part in the ritual if they choose to survive. This form of window dressing is, by most definitions, neither investing nor speculating. But no one seems to care about the ethics, the legality, or the fact that this “Buy High, Sell Low” picture is being painted with your Mutual Fund palette.

A more subtle form of Window Dressing takes place throughout the calendar quarter, but is “unwound” before the portfolio’s Quarterly Reports reach the glossies. In this less prevalent (but even more fraudulent) variety, the managers invest in securities that are clearly out of sync with the fund’s published investment policy during a period when their particular specialty has fallen from grace with the gurus. For example, adding commodity ETFs, or popular emerging country issues to a Large Cap Value Fund, etc. Profits are taken before the Quarter Ends so that the fund’s holdings report remains uncompromised, but with enhanced quarterly results. A third form of Window Dressing is referred to as “survivorship”, but it impacts Mutual Fund investors alone while the others undermine the information used by (and the market performance of) individual security investors. You may want to research it.

I cannot understand why the media reports so superficially on these “business as usual” practices. Perhaps ninety percent of the price movement in the equity markets is the result of institutional trading, and institutional money managers seem to be more concerned with politics and marketing than they are with investing. They are trying to impress their major clients with their brilliance by reporting ownership of all the hot tickets and none of the major losers. At the same time, they are manipulating the performance statistics contained in their promotional materials. They have made “Buy High, Sell Low” the accepted investment strategy of the Mutual Fund industry. Meanwhile, individual security investors receive inaccurate signals and incur collateral losses by moving in the wrong direction.

From an analytical point of view, this quarterly market value reality (artificially created demand for some stocks and unwarranted weakness in others) throws almost any individual security or market sector statistic totally out of wack with the underlying company fundamentals. But it gets even more fuzzy, and not in the lovable sense. Just for the fun of it, think about the “demand pull” impact of an ever-growing list of ETFs. I don’t think that I’m alone in thinking that the real meaning of security prices has less and less to do with corporate economics than it does with the morning betting line on ETF ponies… the dot-coms of the new millennium. [Do you remember the "Circle of Gold" from the seventies? Isn't GLD, or IAU, about the same thing?]

As if all of these institutional forces weren’t enough, you need also consider the impact of tax code motivated transactions during the always-entertaining final quarter of the year. One would never suspect (after watching millions of CPA directed taxpayers gleefully lose billions of pounds) that the purpose of investing is to make money! The net impact of these (euphemistically labeled) “year end tax saving strategies” is pretty much the same as that of the Type One Window Dressing described above. But here’s an off-quarter buying opportunity that you really shouldn’t pass up. Simply put, get out there and buy the November 52-week lows, wait for the periodic and mysterious “January Effect” to be reported by the media with eyes wide shut amazement, and pocket some easy profits.

There just may not be a method to actually decipher the true value of a share of common stock. Is market price a function of company fundamentals, artificial demand for “derivative” securities, or various forms of Institutional Window Dressing? But this is a condition that can be used to great financial advantage. With security prices less closely related to those old fashioned fundamental issues such as dividends, projected profits, and unfunded pension liabilities and perhaps more closely related to artificial demand factors, the only operational alternative appears to be trading! Buy the downtrodden (but still fundamentally investment grade) issues and take your profits on those that have risen to inappropriately high levels based on basic measures of quality… and try to get it done before the big players do. To over simplify, a recipe for success would involve shopping for investment grade stocks at bargain prices, allowing them to simmer until a reasonable, pre-defined, profit target is reached, and seasoning the portfolio brew with the discipline to actually implement the profit taking plan.

Yeah, I do miss the days when there were just stocks and bonds, but maybe I’m just a bit too old fashioned. Interesting place Wall Street…

Stock market is an inquisitive place for many. It is because the place has given birth to many millionaires and is also responsible for turning millionaires to locals. Thus the bulls and bears have always been charismatic. Now millions of people invest in the stock market to make good money. The aura of the place is such that it is swarming with people any hour of the day and any season of the year. But only few know that how the stock market came into existence or what actually are its origins.

A short encounter with the past

The oldest stock certificate was issued in favor of a Dutch company in 1606. The purpose of this company was to benefit from the spice trade between India and the Far East. During the 18th and the 19th centuries the trade of spices drifted to England when Napoleon reigned over the place. With the development of United States of America as a colony to British and Alexander Hamilton (the first US secretary of the Treasury) flourished the American Stock Exchange. Hamilton played a crucial role in encouraging the trading in the Wall Street and Broad Street in New York. The New York Stock and Exchange Board now popularly known as the New York Stock Exchange was organized by the traders of New York in 1817 when trade and commerce bloomed there.

A precise survey of the Western stock market

The Wall Street- a place where the whole of 18th century trade and commerce took place, Wall Street is a recognized place across the globe. The street was termed as Wall Street since it ran alongside a wall that was taken as the northern boundary of New Amsterdam in 17th century.

The Wall Street is known for the J.P. Morgans million pound merger that created US Steel Corporation, the ruinous crisis that resulted in Great Depression and the Black Monday of 1987.

The NYSE or the New York Stock Exchange is perhaps the foremost and so the oldest stock exchange in United States that is believed to be born in 1792. The significant aspects related to NYSE include the Buttonwood Agreement when 24 stockbrokers and traders of New York signed this accord and established the New York Stock Exchange and Securities Board which is now recognized as the NYSE; the considerable swings that the NYSE saw during the 20th and 21st century; the hitting of the 100 and later even 1000 mark by the Dow around 1971 and the mark of 10,000 that the Dow scaled in 1999.

NASDAQ is the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Questions. It is an apparent or virtual stock market where all trading is done through the electronic media. NASDAQ, the global and the largest electronic stock market today was first established in 1971 in United States at the time when computers were not as developed as they are today and it was very difficult to compute. The main exchange of NASDAQ is in United Sates while its branches can be found in Canada and Japan and it is also linked to markets of Hong Kong and Europe. NASDAQ functions by purchasing and selling the over- the- counter or OTC stocks.

AMEX-was discovered in 1842. The putative father of the institution is Edward Mc Cormick (the commissioner of SEC) who endowed it with its current name. It started its journey as the New York Curb Exchange and its name is factual. The AMEX in contrast to the NYSE operates with the small and more dynamic companies some of which even make it to the NYSE board.

Unless you are able to develop a considerable trading edge over the other traders, you will end up losing your money, even if you are disciplined and organized. In this article, I discuss some elements that I use in my trading edge.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is the process of evaluating the financial condition of a company using financial reports, priceearning ratios, revenues, market share, sales and growth, etc. This type of analysis can be time consuming so instead of going through pages of financial reports, I simply look at IBD ratings.

I like to use Investors Business Daily (IBD found at investors.com) to get a quick overview of a stock. The IBD rating covers:

1 – Earnings Per Share (EPS) rating: tells me a stocks average short term (recent quarters) and long term (last three years) earning growth rate. The number I see is how the company compares to all other companies. The scale runs from 1 to 99, 99 being the best.

2 – Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating: Measures a stocks relative price change in the last 12 months in comparison to all other equities. The scale runs from 1 to 99, 99 being the best.

3 – Industry Relative Price Rating: Compares a stocks industry price action in the last 6 months to the other 196 industries in IBDs industry list. The scale is from A to E, A being the best.

4 – Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (Return on Equity) Rating: Crunches a firms sales growth rate during the last 3 quarters, before and after profit margins and return on equity into one letter. The scale is from A to E, A being the best.

5 – AccumulationDistribution rating: Applies a formula of price and volume changes in the last 13 weeks to determine if it is being accumulated or distributed. A = heavy buying, C = Neutral, E = heavy selling.

If you like the idea of including fundamental analysis into your trading plan, consider trading only stocks that meet some minimum requirements – for example A or B, > 70, etc.

I like to use fundamental ratings for longer term trades such as the ones I plan on weekly charts. It is not really useful if you trade intraday.

Technical Analysis

Fundamental analysis is great to build a list of strong stocks, or as a way to filter out weak stocks, but thats about it. It does not provide you with an objective method to enter and exit trades. All my trading decisions (entry, exit, and stops) are based on technical analysis.

Technical analysis is the study of prices. The price action draws patterns on charts and because human behavior can be repetitive, the price patterns can also be repetitive.

You can choose from a variety of chart types. The Japanese candlestick charts are by far the best and it is the only form you need. There are entire books dedicated to the study of candlestick patterns – if you are serious about studying candlestick charts, look at books written by Steve Nison and and Gregory L. Morris.

- Support and Resistance: The most important concept in technical analysis is Support and Resistance. It forms the foundation for every trading decision and could cover many pages but I will limit myself to simplified definitions and a couple examples:

Support level: A price level that a declining market or stock failed to penetrate
Example: the low of the previous day forms an area of support and is often used as a stop loss.

Resistance level: A price level that a rising market or stock failed to break through
Example: a prior high in an uptrend forms an area of resistance and can be used as a minimum objective to take some profits.

Some technical indicators may also provide some support and resistance, for example moving averages, in part maybe because so many traders expect it.

- Oscillators

An oscillator is a technical indicator that tells you at a glance whether a market or a stock currently trades in an “overbought” or “oversold” condition. Some traders use oscillators to forecast a change of direction. Some examples include the RSI, Stochastic Oscillator, and MACD.

There are hundreds of oscillators and technical indicators. I personally look at them to filter out some stocks if I have too many good ones to choose from. I never use them as a signal to open or close a trade.

- Public Sentiment

I look for support and resistance on the VIX (Volatility Index) daily chart to anticipate reversals.

I look at the PutCall Ratio (5 MA and 10 MA) on the daily chart to see if traders are too bearish (MAs > 0.8) or too bullish (MAs < 0.5).

(MA = Moving Average)

- Market internals to see if the market is overbought or oversold

I look at the TRIN (5 MA and 10 MA) on the daily chart - overbought (MAs < 0.8) or oversold (MAs > 1.2).

I look at the McClellan Oscillator the market is overbought if it rises above +70 and oversold if drops below -70. A buy signal is generated if it falls into the oversold area (-70 to -100) and then turns up – a sell signal is generated if it rises into the overbought area (+70 to +100) and then turns down. If it goes beyond the -100+100 levels then it may be a sign of continuation of the current trend.

- Market and Industries

I like to buy stocks from industries in a strong uptrend and short stocks from industries in a downtrend. I also consider the direction of the industry for the day (positive or negative).

Putting it all together

This article is not about teaching you how to develop an edge but hopefully it shows you that there are many different tools that can be used to improve your odds. It takes time to find a combination that fits your personality. It takes time to find what works for you.