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Unless you are able to develop a considerable trading edge over the other traders, you will end up losing your money, even if you are disciplined and organized. In this article, I discuss some elements that I use in my trading edge.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is the process of evaluating the financial condition of a company using financial reports, priceearning ratios, revenues, market share, sales and growth, etc. This type of analysis can be time consuming so instead of going through pages of financial reports, I simply look at IBD ratings.

I like to use Investors Business Daily (IBD found at investors.com) to get a quick overview of a stock. The IBD rating covers:

1 – Earnings Per Share (EPS) rating: tells me a stocks average short term (recent quarters) and long term (last three years) earning growth rate. The number I see is how the company compares to all other companies. The scale runs from 1 to 99, 99 being the best.

2 – Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating: Measures a stocks relative price change in the last 12 months in comparison to all other equities. The scale runs from 1 to 99, 99 being the best.

3 – Industry Relative Price Rating: Compares a stocks industry price action in the last 6 months to the other 196 industries in IBDs industry list. The scale is from A to E, A being the best.

4 – Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (Return on Equity) Rating: Crunches a firms sales growth rate during the last 3 quarters, before and after profit margins and return on equity into one letter. The scale is from A to E, A being the best.

5 – AccumulationDistribution rating: Applies a formula of price and volume changes in the last 13 weeks to determine if it is being accumulated or distributed. A = heavy buying, C = Neutral, E = heavy selling.

If you like the idea of including fundamental analysis into your trading plan, consider trading only stocks that meet some minimum requirements – for example A or B, > 70, etc.

I like to use fundamental ratings for longer term trades such as the ones I plan on weekly charts. It is not really useful if you trade intraday.

Technical Analysis

Fundamental analysis is great to build a list of strong stocks, or as a way to filter out weak stocks, but thats about it. It does not provide you with an objective method to enter and exit trades. All my trading decisions (entry, exit, and stops) are based on technical analysis.

Technical analysis is the study of prices. The price action draws patterns on charts and because human behavior can be repetitive, the price patterns can also be repetitive.

You can choose from a variety of chart types. The Japanese candlestick charts are by far the best and it is the only form you need. There are entire books dedicated to the study of candlestick patterns – if you are serious about studying candlestick charts, look at books written by Steve Nison and and Gregory L. Morris.

- Support and Resistance: The most important concept in technical analysis is Support and Resistance. It forms the foundation for every trading decision and could cover many pages but I will limit myself to simplified definitions and a couple examples:

Support level: A price level that a declining market or stock failed to penetrate
Example: the low of the previous day forms an area of support and is often used as a stop loss.

Resistance level: A price level that a rising market or stock failed to break through
Example: a prior high in an uptrend forms an area of resistance and can be used as a minimum objective to take some profits.

Some technical indicators may also provide some support and resistance, for example moving averages, in part maybe because so many traders expect it.

- Oscillators

An oscillator is a technical indicator that tells you at a glance whether a market or a stock currently trades in an “overbought” or “oversold” condition. Some traders use oscillators to forecast a change of direction. Some examples include the RSI, Stochastic Oscillator, and MACD.

There are hundreds of oscillators and technical indicators. I personally look at them to filter out some stocks if I have too many good ones to choose from. I never use them as a signal to open or close a trade.

- Public Sentiment

I look for support and resistance on the VIX (Volatility Index) daily chart to anticipate reversals.

I look at the PutCall Ratio (5 MA and 10 MA) on the daily chart to see if traders are too bearish (MAs > 0.8) or too bullish (MAs < 0.5).

(MA = Moving Average)

- Market internals to see if the market is overbought or oversold

I look at the TRIN (5 MA and 10 MA) on the daily chart - overbought (MAs < 0.8) or oversold (MAs > 1.2).

I look at the McClellan Oscillator the market is overbought if it rises above +70 and oversold if drops below -70. A buy signal is generated if it falls into the oversold area (-70 to -100) and then turns up – a sell signal is generated if it rises into the overbought area (+70 to +100) and then turns down. If it goes beyond the -100+100 levels then it may be a sign of continuation of the current trend.

- Market and Industries

I like to buy stocks from industries in a strong uptrend and short stocks from industries in a downtrend. I also consider the direction of the industry for the day (positive or negative).

Putting it all together

This article is not about teaching you how to develop an edge but hopefully it shows you that there are many different tools that can be used to improve your odds. It takes time to find a combination that fits your personality. It takes time to find what works for you.

The BSE Sensex is the index of shares listed on the Mumbai Stock Exchange (BSE) and learning how to recognise the trends in the index can yield valuable information about when to buy, when to hold and when to sell, the three main pieces of information needed by every Indian stock market investor.

The performance and trending of the BSE Sensex index of the Mumbai Stock Exchange (Bombay Stock Exchange) is uploaded every day to www.sharesdaily.in where you

will see a number of metrics, the first being the percentage rate of change over the past 1, 5, 10, 60 and 250 trading days.

One often sees the words “short term”, “medium term” and “long term” used in the financial media without any actual
definitions. The sharesdaily.in analysis metric defines them thus:

Short term is the market trend over the past ten trading days.

Medium term is the market trend over the past sixty trading days.

Long term is the market trend over the past two hundred and fifty trading days.

From this you can see that it is possible to have the market rising in the short term but falling in the medium term, etc.

When all three terms are showing positive numbers, the market trend is very strong in that direction, be it up or down.

In addition to the previous trends, the percentage rate of change of the previous trading day is displayed plus the movement over the past week of five trading days.

The other valuable metric is the Volatility Barometer, this measures the trading range over the past ten trading days. If the volatility is falling then the market is more stable,

if it is rising then the market is becoming more unstable. An actual numerical readout will be installed in the future.

The ideal condition for investors is to have the short, medium and long term trends in positive numbers and to have the volatility decreasing. Here you have both gain and stability. This applies to the market index and not to every individual stock.

Always remember that this all can be overruled by sudden unpredictable negative events so have your exit strategy and stop losses in place. More about this in future
articles.