As businesses begin to lose money and booming, raging profits give way to something a little more on par with their daily expenses the door to successfully investing in the market swings wide open and invites you in. The principles of investing in the stock market during a recession are remarkably similar to the principles of investing in real estate. When you invest in the stock market during a recession you have the opportunity to take advantage of a companys poor fortune.
How? When companies are making money hand over fist the value of the company goes through the roof, and as the value of the company rises so too does the value of its stock. So when a company is riding high the price of the stock is going to be high as well. Shift the situation a bit, however, and the story changes.
Take mortgage giant Fannie Mae. In the month of July 2008 alone the value of its stock fell from 16 and change to a little over 8 a share. By September of that same year the share price was under a dollar courtesy of the sheer quantity of its borrowers that had defaulted on their loans.
Fannie Mae is only one of many companies who suffered a similar fate during the last recession. Its situations like these that present stock holders willing to think in the long term with a golden opportunity to make a profit. If they can purchase the shares when they are low, as in Fannie Maes case, less than 1/16 their value, they can sit back, fold their hands and wait for the recession to end. When the recession has ended they can sell their shares for a tidy profit, sit back and pat themselves on the back for a job well done.
That doesnt mean you should go out, find a company thats failing and throw your life savings into their stock. Thats a recipe for disaster that many investors have fallen into over the years! This is a golden opportunity that definitely shouldnt be allowed to pass you by, but there are a few things you should watch out for.
1)First and foremost, when youre choosing a company to invest in its essential that you choose one thats going to weather the storm of the recession and bounce back when the time comes. If you sink your savings into a company and it goes under as a result of the recession youre going to be no better off than you were before. To determine whether or not a company will survive to see a bright new future rather than being culled out when the recession separates the wheat from the chaff, answer the following questions:
How long have they been in business? Companies that have been in business for many years are unlikely to go under because of a simple recession-in fact, theyve likely weathered many of them in their time. A company thats already proven their staying power is an excellent choice of investment, and should definitely be given first consideration.
What do they do? Although companies that specialize tend to be movers and shakers when the economy is normal, if they are unable to expand and macro themselves (a topic well talk about in greater detail in just a bit) to adjust to the changing economy theyre going to go under. If a company has not been able to expand and diversify, and if it doesnt offer a product that people are guaranteed to need day after day and therefore are pretty much guaranteed to keep coming back for, its at a high risk for going under during the recession and should be given a wide berth.
Is their industry stable? Historically, there are certain industries that tend to fare better in a recession than others, and these should be given firm consideration when youre expanding your portfolio. Utility stocks (telephone, electric, gas), food and escapes such as cigarettes, alcohol and gambling have a history of tremendous success when it comes to riding out a recession because these are the industries that most consumers deem necessities and will continue pumping their money into.
Is it a necessity? The industries listed above are stable choices during a recession because they are deemed to be necessities; however, if there is one industry that you can be sure is not going to go anywhere in the face of any kind of recession, it is the healthcare and pharmaceutical industry. Regardless of what the economy looks like, people are going to get sick and theyre going to need their medication to recover. This is a strong, stable choice for your portfolio, and its one that you can count on to bring in a steady, if not always remarkable, return.
What about gold? Gold isnt going anywhere. If youre looking for a safe, solid and low risk investment during a recession period, gold is an excellent choice. There is very little chance that the value of gold is going to depreciate rapidly, and its definitely not going anywhere.
Successful investing isnt always just a matter of knowing what to invest in. Many times, its also a matter of knowing what not to invest in. There are certain industries that often bring about good returns when the stock market is high, but who are extremely risky during times of recession. Can you guess which industries those are? Right. Any industry that specializes in luxury services is going to take a hit when conscientious investors start counting their pennies, and as a result so are their stockholders. Good industries to avoid include airlines, luxury resorts, restaurants (unless they have been around for a while) and, of course, financial and lending institutions (who are likely to go under as their borrowers slip further and further into debt).
If you arent familiar with the process of investing the best thing you could do for yourself to ensure the continued growth and success of your investments is find a skilled financial counselor and/or investment broker to work with. Ideally, theyll be able to look at a companys past history and their current place on the market and let you know whether or not they are a good choice for investment. Choose your broker with care, however; the last thing you want is to see your hard work and cautious planning fall apart because your broker was overly ambitious and pushed you into an investment that was doomed to failure from the very beginning.
2)Diversify. Regardless of how established a company is, theres no way to positively predict how they are going to react in the event of a recession. Your mother always told you not to put all of your eggs in a single basket, and she was absolutely right. If you can spread your investments around a bit through several companies in a variety of industries you will stand a better chance of being able to profit from this recession. Even if the bottom falls out of one and it goes under as a result of the poor economy you will have the others to fall back on and ensure that you are never left holding absolutely nothing at the end of the day.
Like real estate, investing in stocks now opens the door to the possibility of tremendous profits down the road. You may not be able to enjoy the same 100,000 gain you would have had you chosen to invest in houses rather than stocks, but you will enjoy a comfortable profit that will help carry you through on into the new economy.
Picture this. Lets say that you decided to take advantage of Fannie Maes current position and bout 4,000 shares of stock. (For the record, this is not something I recommend; Fannie Mae is simply a hypothetical example for the purpose of this book). At a dollar each, youd be able to acquire the stocks for under 4,000.
Not a bad days work, all in all. You set the stocks aside and forget about them as the recession draws to a close. Somehow Fannie Mae has managed to weather the recession, and because of it your stocks rise in value back to their original price of 16 apiece. That means that the stocks you purchased during the recession, the ones that you paid less then a dollar for, are now worth sixteen times their original value. That means that instead of the 4,000 worth of stock you thought you had, youre now sitting on 64,000 worth of stock.
Thats a 60,000 gain. 60,000, a years worth of salary for part of Americas citizens (two years worth for many) to get you started in your new life, all because you had the good sense to invest in the stock market when the selling price was low and the stocks were being agreeable. You saw the opportunity and you took it, and now youre going to reap the rewards.
Stock Market Investments
Retail is for Stockpickers
Since September 2004, the S&P Retail Index has been caught in a sideways consolidation channel at between 400 and 500, unable to establish a sustainable trend in one direction or the other. During that time, the monthly retail numbers have been largely mixed. But in January, the retail data (excluding auto) was impressive, showing growth of 2.20% versus the estimate of 0.8%. It was the strongest reading in years.
Yet the initial optimism appears to be fading after seeing mixed reports from the nations retailers on Thursday. The early data suggests that same-store sales growth will be sub par compared to what we saw in January.
The reading in January may have been an aberration because of warmer than expected temperatures. The surfacing of cold weather in February apparently sent a chill through the pocketbooks of consumers. Also, the strong January sales may have taken away from spending in February.
The reality is the absence of a positive trend in retail makes investing in retail stocks more of a risk. You need to pick the right company. Even bellwether stocks such as Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) are struggling as far as its share price in spite of some decent sales results and same-store sales growth. But the current valuation deserves a look.
Youth oriented clothes retailer Gap (GPS) is a company that is clearly struggling at the cash register. Its February same-store sales crashed 11% year-over-year, well above the Street estimate calling for a decline of 6.80%. This followed on the heels of an 11% decline in the companys Q4 earnings along with a FY07 forecast that was short of Wall Street expectations.
GAP expects comparable-store sales to be negative in the first half and turn moderately positive for the remainder of the year. Same-store sales are widely viewed as the best indicator of a retailer’s health.
For investors, GAP is clearly a turnaround play that could pay off if it can somehow figure out how to attract shoppers. The fact is the company has great brand awareness and this counts for something in this brand conscious world we live in.
On the upside, you have a company like Best Buy (BBY), a dominant market leader in consumer electronics. The stock is just below its 52-week high, up 69% from its yearly low.
The reality is retail spending may be impacted by the higher financing costs associated with the rising debt loads across America. The personal savings rate is declining and was negative in January. Consumers are eating into their savings and you know this cannot be good for retail.
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Buy To Cover Orders With Stock Trading
If you have always wanted to know more about this topic, then get ready because we have all the information you can handle.
Within the buy to cover orders, there are four options in which to place against your stock purchases. When you buy to cover on a stock order, you are in agreement that you will buy the stock at the latest share price; however, because there is a lag between the time you approve to buy the stock and the actual transaction, a price difference may occur. You could end up paying more than anticipated for each stock, or a considerably lesser amount per stock, which is what you are eager for. You can also buy to cover limit orders, which guarantees that you pay no more than the set limit price. However, if stock prices hold above the limit buy price, this type of buy to cover order will never be executed.
This type of transaction is mainly used by investors who want to get into a certain market. You may also want to buy, to cover stop orders in which case the stop orders become simple stock orders as soon as the value is at or above the stop price. This type of order is used to get you out of an unfavourable stock so that you will not have lost any profits. And, finally, you may want to buy to cover a limit order that converts to limit order only when the share value is at or above the stop price. You have to know each of the buy to cover orders so that you can make educated decisions about your investments.
From one decision period to the next in the stock market game, the markets can move up and down non-stop, which means that prices of shares are at a frequent changing point. You may think about purchasing a certain stock that is at 5 per share, and in the next day, the value per share has risen to 15 per share.
This is where the betting of the stock market comes into play. By erudition the advantages of the buy to cover orders, you can multiply your odds of earning money on the stock exchange rather than of losing money. The most obvious benefit to the entire buy to cover options is that they are in place to make you money, when executed properly. For example, you would not perform a stop loss on a stock that has steadily increased over a 5 month period. If you did this, you would force yourself to squander money to buy the stock in order to cover your mistake. You choose to buy 175 shares of stocks from Albertson’s, a grocery store chain, at 75 each, for an entire investment of 13,125. Over a four month period, you observe that the stocks have gained in profit, and you would like to do something to guarantee that you keep this earned profit. Not knowing better, you put a stop loss of 45 per stock without consulting with your stockbroker. From that position forward, if your stock decreases to 45 per stock, you have to sell it, and any earlier earned profit is null and void. The only chance you have in getting back that profit is if you are swift enough in the non-stop stock market game, to buy the Albertson’s stocks before somebody else does. However, even if you are able to do this, you have still suffered a great loss monetarily.
Educate yourself in the stock market game.
As with any game, there is some form of jeopardy involved, however, when you play the stock market game, you can avert a great deal of distress by simply taking the time to acquire knowledge about all types of orders you are able to place on your stocks. If you require help educating yourself about the types of orders to place on your stocks, you should consult your stockbroker in order to take professional advice before taking matters into your own hands, inevitably forcing yourself to lose some of your invested money’s profit. Thus, it is absurd to invest your hard earned money into any program before you know all the data necessary to make a well-informed, educated judgment.
If you could take the main ideas from this article and put them into a list, you would a great overview of what we have learned.